Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 20.599498 22.469201 24.545555 27.045825 30.007383 33.446330 37.807666
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 17.907463 20.375464 23.330463 27.215150 32.329453 39.063327 49.054128
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.094567 18.872860 22.388343 27.337200 34.455950 44.973318 63.324210
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.649986 17.556362 21.386788 27.071515 35.863878 50.250038 79.762267
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.635403 16.636703 20.730058 27.091665 37.608211 56.640430 103.431690
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.744104 15.765795 19.998691 26.826134 38.763433 62.422333 132.505414
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.009166 15.029259 19.356653 26.565022 39.821056 68.488305 172.839266
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.396374 14.405707 18.803757 26.343924 40.873671 75.112760 233.257348
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.885099 13.883757 18.345539 26.201858 42.033490 82.747193 335.035507
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.347141 13.281711 17.704226 25.643239 42.182941 87.742952 463.378709
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.194668 13.240778 17.942130 26.698152 46.178869 108.297915 1413.105026
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.808338 12.816295 17.516545 26.442891 47.032365 118.681823 5130.831284
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.498434 12.497158 17.249917 26.483280 48.721610 135.311449 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.236997 12.238095 17.063779 26.661755 50.870669 158.320898 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.988030 11.983633 16.864365 26.785847 52.942697 186.242329 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.701352 11.653139 16.507616 26.531594 53.836372 209.428107 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.477105 11.411511 16.290196 26.552092 55.632144 247.856458 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.230297 11.120983 15.965426 26.295793 56.462076 282.297949 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.001201 10.849135 15.657437 26.043458 57.258174 323.648397 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.792377 10.601706 15.379153 25.829671 58.157776 377.152530 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.606593 10.384703 15.144132 25.692267 59.333407 453.714184 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.381476 10.093489 14.755678 25.151714 58.792345 490.403800 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.358060 10.139337 15.000930 26.172317 65.079988 956.276028 NaN